What does the 2024 US presidential election mean for supply chain players?

In response to mounting industry concerns about unprecedented market volatility, SEKO Logistics continues to demonstrate its thought leadership through comprehensive market analysis. In an exclusive interview with leading industry publication The Loadstar, SEKO's Global Chief Commercial Officer, Brian Bourke, provided critical insights into the complex challenges facing global supply chains.

Read the full article <Election fever and port labour tension keep supply chain players on edge, says SEKO Logistics>

Critical Market Analysis: Multiple Challenges Converge

"The near-term supply chain market would be dictated by three “milestones".” Bourke explained to The Loadstar, highlighting critical factors:

The presidential transition impact and a general increase in protectionist measures;
East Coast port labor negotiations reaching a critical phase;
Red Sea crisis affecting global shipping routes;

Immediate Market Response and Rate Dynamics

Drawing on SEKO's extensive market intelligence, Bourke notes a surge in strategic planning among shippers: "In the next week or two, we expect to see businesses making ‘a few safety purchase orders’, particularly as we approach potential policy shifts."

Key Market Impacts and Strategic Considerations

Tariff Concerns and Market Response

SEKO expert indicates several critical developments:

Potential implementation of new tariff structures (10-20% across board, 60%-100% for specific origins and products)
Impact on Trans-Pacific trade lanes
Shifts in nearshoring strategies
Implications for warehouse networks

Strategic Timeline Considerations

Based on SEKO's expert analysis, here are the key dates to watch:

January 15, 2025 - East Coast Port Labour Agreement Deadline
January 20, 2025 - Inauguration Day
Q2/Q3 2025 - Potential new tariff implementation period

SEKO's Expert Guidance for Chinese Exporters

Immediate Action Points

Strategic Inventory Management

Pre-emptive shipping considerations
Warehouse network optimization
Alternative routing options

Risk Mitigation Strategies

Multiple origin strategies
Contract negotiation timing
Route diversification planning

Market Outlook and Rate Predictions

Short-term Market Dynamics

"Once the businesses feel certain that whoever takes the White House intends to up the number of tariffs, you’ll see inventory orders being pulled forward.” Bourke revealed to The Loadstar, “Some of our customers are already pulling orders ahead,"

Several key factors have also been noted:

Extended peak season on Trans-Pacific routes
Strong Asia-US cargo movement momentum
Capacity adjustments by carriers
Rate stabilization efforts

Long-term Strategic Planning

SEKO expert suggests preparing for:

Potential trade policy shifts
Supply chain restructuring
Alternative manufacturing locations
Network optimization needs

Alternative Routing Solutions

Drawing on SEKO's extensive network expertise, we offer comprehensive routing alternatives to address current challenges:

Trans-Pacific Options - West Coast Routing:

Alternative port pairs beyond LA/Long Beach
Strategic advantages for time-sensitive cargo
Intermodal solutions via Pacific Northwest
Enhanced warehouse network integration

Alternative Gateway Solutions - Gulf Coast Strategy:

Houston and Mobile port utilization
Reduced congestion potential
Strategic inland point intermodal (IPI) options
Cost-effective distribution to central U.S.

Canadian Gateway Solutions - Vancouver/Prince Rupert Options:

Alternative access to U.S. Midwest
Rail connectivity advantages
Weather-resistant supply chain planning
Custom clearance optimization

Looking Ahead: Strategic Planning for 2025

The logistics landscape in 2025 presents a complex interplay of factors that demand sophisticated planning and agile response capabilities. The transition period following the presidential inauguration in January 2025 will likely trigger significant policy shifts, particularly in trade relationships with China and other key manufacturing nations.

SEKO's market intelligence suggests that the first quarter of 2025 will be particularly critical as multiple factors converge: the implementation of new shipping alliances, potential labor negotiations at East Coast ports, and the possibility of new tariff announcements. Our analysis indicates that the shipping industry may experience substantial rate volatility during this period, especially on Trans-Pacific routes.

The realignment of shipping alliances, particularly with the introduction of the new Gemini Alliance, will reshape vessel deployment patterns and potentially impact service reliability through mid-2025. This transition period requires careful planning for optimal cargo routing and timing.

Furthermore, the potential implementation of new trade policies could fundamentally alter supply chain economics, particularly for goods manufactured in China and Southeast Asia. Companies must prepare for various scenarios, including possible tariff ranges from 10% to 60%, which could dramatically impact landed cost calculations and inventory holding strategies.

WHAT’S NEXT

The most important thing is for companies to prepare for each possible outcome. As your logistics partner, we are ready and able to pivot quickly. Our team is working directly with clients to address their specific needs as situation evolves.

We will frequently communicate and advise on the situation as more details become available.

If you have any questions, please reach out to your SEKO representative, or email us at lianxi@sekologistics.com.